National Encounter Analysis.

Overview:

The current crisis at the U.S. border is one of the most pressing issues today. Using predictive analysis to understand and manage this situation is a priority for many data analytics institutions focused on national security. Our approach utilizes Nationwide Encounters data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). This data encompasses U.S. Border Patrol Title 8 apprehensions, Office of Field Operations Title 8 inadmissibilities, and all Title 42 expulsions from fiscal year 2020 to the present. It includes encounter data for the Northern Land Border, Southwest Land Border, and Nationwide encounters (air, land, and sea modes of transportation).

Objective:

The objective of this project is to analyze U.S. border encounters from 2020 to 2024, using data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The analysis aims to understand key metrics such as expulsions, apprehensions, and inadmissibles, categorized by regions and citizenships. By examining migration trends through time series and forecasting future patterns, the project seeks to provide insights that can inform U.S. border management strategies, helping address the challenges related to migration dynamics and enforcement policies.

Data Dictionary

This data dictionary aims to guide users in interpreting and analyzing the available raw data.

I. Guidelines for Using Encounter Data:

  1. Statistical information may be updated due to corrections, system changes, adjustments in data definitions, additional information, or pending final reviews.

  2. Nationwide totals are derived by aggregating data from the "Northern Land Border," "Southwest Land Border," and "Other" regions.

II. Data Dictionary Overview:

  1. Data Sources: Secure Government Integrated Mainframe Access (SIGMA); Unified Secondary (USEC); Enforcement Integrated Database (EID).

  2. Data Elements:

  1. Fiscal Year & Month - Dates of encounters.

  2. Component - Border authority involved (e.g., Office of Field Operations, U.S. Border Patrol).

  3. Land Border Region - Specific border region (Northern Land Border, Southwest Land Border, etc.).

  4. Area of Responsibility (AOR) - Specific field office or sector location.

  5. Demographic Categories - Categories like accompanied minors, single adults, unaccompanied children, and family units.

  6. Citizenship - Country of origin for individuals encountered.

  7. Title of Authority - Processing authority (e.g., Title 8, Title 42).

  8. Encounter Type - Defined by Title of Authority, like apprehensions, expulsions, or inadmissibles.

  9. Encounter Count - Number of individuals involved in each encounter.

Data Transformation

In this dataset a few key data transformations were performed:

  1. Encounter Count Adjustment: To address negative values in the "Encounter Count" column, an adjustment was made by adding the absolute minimum value plus one to all values, ensuring all counts were positive.

  2. Log Transformation: A log transformation was applied to the adjusted "Encounter Count" values to reduce skewness and better fit statistical models.

  3. Stationarity Testing: The transformed data was subjected to the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to check for stationarity, an essential step in time series analysis​.

Summary:

The analysis of U.S. border encounters from 2021 to 2024 highlights significant fluctuations influenced by key policy changes and seasonal trends. Policies like the rollback of the "Remain in Mexico" rule and the 2024 Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act shaped migration flows, while seasonal shifts saw a rise in encounters during the fall and winter months. As Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and Venezuela accounted for the majority of encounters, the Southwest Land Border remained the dominant region for these interactions. Looking forward to 2025, forecasts predict more stability in average encounter numbers after an early-year peak. As the U.S. continues to adapt its immigration policies, these trends highlight the complex interplay between legislation, enforcement, and migration dynamics. Ultimately, understanding these fluctuations offers a clearer view of the challenges and realities at the U.S. border, providing insights that will be crucial in shaping future immigration strategies.

Source: Nationwide Encounters | U.S. Customs and Border Protection